Where the Grass is Greener: Players at the Top of the Current Grass Court Ratings

As the players have begun to take to the lush lawns in preparation for the most prestigious grass court tournament of the year, two names stand out as dominant forces in their respective realms. Novak Djokovic, the only man to hold 23 Grand Slam titles, continues to be the greatest threat on the men’s side; while Iga Swiatek has also solidified her claim as a force to be reckoned with by taking the women’s title at the 2023 French Open, the fourth of her burgeoning career. Let’s look at the current grass court ratings standings to see who — if any one — is best positioned to stop Djokovic and Swiatek from steamrolling to a 2023 Wimbledon title.

When we look at the current ratings breakdown, Djokovic is at a staggering rating of 2560 on grass (Figure 1). This puts Djokovic 200 points ahead of Holger Rune, who is the 3rd highest rated male player on grass, which would give Djokovic a comfortable 76% win probability over Rune if they were to meet. The only player that is within striking distance of Djokovic is Carlos Alcaraz. Just as they were going into the French Open, Alcaraz and Djokovic are close to even in the ratings, but physical issues (and perhaps inexperience) intervened to keep Alcaraz from fully capitalizing on his potential in Paris.

We can only hope that Alcaraz, despite having played relatively few events on grass, will be better prepared for a meeting with Djokovic. Otherwise, this could be another lackluster men’s event in the final rounds.

It is notable that there is a cluster of 11 other competitors rated over 2200, including some favorites like Medvedev and Rublev (both Russians who will be returning to the grounds of the All England Club this year) and more up-and-comers like Jack Draper and Sebastian Korda. Although less likely contenders, the strength of the ratings among this group gives each of them good chances for a deep run into the second week.

Figure 1. Current Top 64 Rated Men on Grass.

The biggest wild card on the men’s side is undoubtedly Nick Kyrgios. Kyrgios showed his potential on grass in 2022 when — even after a sporadic season schedule — he made the finals at SW19 and took a set off Novak. But courts, injuries and online controversy have kept Kyrgios from a minimal match and (presumably) training schedule for even his standards. Still, Kyrgios is full of surprises and, although a repeat final seems out of the realm, knocking out a top seed or two could be just the kind of chaos Kyrgios would dig deep to serve up.

On the women’s side, the current grass court ratings show that Swiatek is even in a more dominant situation than Djokovic (Figure 2). At a current rating of 2533, Swiatek is 100 points ahead of the 2nd most highly rated player, Aryna Sabalenka. This puts Swiatek in an even cosier situation if she were to meet her toughest competitor at the event.

Figure 2. Current Top 64 Rated Women on Grass

Like on the men’s side, there are 11 women’s competitors rated between 2200 and 2300 and are all in strong positions to last on the English grass. That list includes Karolina Muchova, Cori Gauff and Ons Jabeur. What is interesting in contrast with the men is that there is a third player, along side Swiatek and Sabalenka, who has set herself apart from even this elite pack: Elena Rybakina.

Rybakina will enter the 2023 Wimbledon as the defending champion. And, with four finals appearances so far in 2023, Rybakina is on track to have one of the most successful seasons of her career. A second Wimbledon title would solidify that milestone and make Swiatek-Sabalenka-Ryabkina a veritable trio at the top of women’s tennis.

Novak Djokovic’s pursuit of his 24th Grand Slam title looms large, and the possibility of a rematch with the formidable Carlos Alcaraz, who missed an opportunity to truly push Djokovic in Paris, adds an extra layer of intrigue to what could transpire in London. On the women’s side, the main question appears to be whether Sabalenka or Rybakina can go deep enough to challenge Swiatek. If any other top player were to dispatch Iga it would be a shock although not an impossibility from a ratings point of view. Nevertheless, the pristine lawns of All England Club have been the stage of many an unforeseen drama and that is something we can all stay tuned for in the weeks to come.