With 6 weeks into the 2023 season and one Major done and dusted, it is a fitting point to check in on who is currently topping the ATP and WTA player ratings.
Iga Swiatek may have exited earlier from Melbourne than many expected but she still holds the top position in the women’s ratings (Figure 1). Swiatek’s loss to eventual AO finalist Elena Rybakina brought her rating down 40 points from where it was at the start of the year. Swiatek remains the biggest threat for the coming US hard court series, but her edge is just a slim 50 points over our ratings No. 2, Aryna Sabalenka.
Figure 1. Current all-surface standings for WTA players who were among the top 64 most highly rated at either the start of the year or now.
Among the 10 most highly rated players, it is notable that all but Ons Jabeur reached the R16 or better. Several who saw the biggest boosts out of Oz are newly minted Grand Slam champion Aryna Sabalenka, finalist Elena Rybakina, and quarterfinalist Jessica Pegula, who each are among a handful of players who have added 100 points or more to their ratings since the start of the year. Though to a lesser extent, Magda Linette and Karolina Pliskova also saw a jump in their rating due to standout AO performances
Two players whose disappointing starts to the 2023 season have dropped them out of the top 64 are Madison Brengle and Viktorija Golubic. Brengle has lost 71 points in her rating since the start of the year, a year that began with four straight events in which Brengle was unable to get past the first round. It is a similar scenario for Viktorija Golubic, who has seen her rating decline that most among the WTA players shown in Figure 1, losing 87 rating points since the start of the year. That change can be attributed to a string of surprising losses, including a defeat to Kateryna Baindl in the first round of qualifying in Hobart.
Figure 2. Start-of-year ratings versus current ratings for WTA players who were among the top 64 most highly rated at either time point. Named players are those with a change of 60 ratings point, in either direction, since the start of the year.
Two other players making big moves recently are Linda Noskova and Alycia Parks. 18 year-old Noskova made it thru qualifying to eventually reach the quarterfinals in Lyon. Wins over Garbine Muguruza and Mayar Sherif helped to add +110 rating points to Noskova’s rating at the start of January. American Parks surpassed everyone’s expectations in Lyon by taking the title away from Caroline Garcia and adding +101 points to her rating at the start of the year.
Turning to the men’s side, the AO finalists take the No. 1 and No. 2 spots of the men’s ratings table (Figure 3). However, at 2396 rating points, Novak Djokovic sits at a very comfortable +225 points ahead of Stefanos Tsitsipas. That skill gap was surely felt by fans who tuned into the men’s final and could be a preview of more to come for the remained of the ATP season.
With just 150 rating points separating the 10th rated player Sebastian Korda from Korda, it shows that the race for the top positions behind Djokovic is where the real competition is. The two players in this group with the most momentum coming away from Melbourne are Tsitsipas and Khachanov, who added +85 and +92 points, respectively, to their ratings since the start of the year (Figure 4).
Figure 3. Current all-surface standings for ATP players who were among the top 64 most highly rated at either the start of the year or now.
Breakout AO star Jiri Lehecka is also among the small group of player who have added more than 90 points to their start-of-year rating in recent weeks. Aussie wins over Holger Rune and Mackenzie Mcdonald have also put Yoshihito Nishioka in that group.
Figure 4. Start-of-year ratings versus current ratings for ATP players who were among the top 64 most highly rated at either time point. Named players are those with a change of 60 ratings point, in either direction, since the start of the year.
Only a few top players have clearly been off their game at the start of 2023. First round losses in Auckland and Melbourne contributed to John Isner dropping -60 rating points. We also see Mikael Ymer down in the ratings due to a recent defeat in Montpellier. Alexander Bublik tops the list of players with a very, very bad start to the season. Bublik has not had a win so far in 2023 and is down -91 ratings points. While not any more acceptable, those numbers make Bublik’s recent meltdown in Montpellier more understandable.
For most top players, ratings stay fairly stable over a matter of a few weeks. But a string of results like Bublik’s or, on the more positive side, like Lehecka’s are a strong reminder of how quickly a player’s form can change over the course of even a few events. It’s these kinds of ups and downs that we will continue to track with regular ratings updates throughout the season.
I wonder if it makes sense to compare players based on how many available ELO points they were theoretically able to win. Depending on the quality of opponents a player faces within a time span, I imagine there's only so many ELO points they can gain or lose. And not all players are given the same opportunities to rise or fall in ELO points due to their different schedules.