Sizing Up the 2023 US Open Men’s Seeds

The final Grand Slam of the 2023 calendar is upon us. On the men’s side, this year’s draw will see the return of Novak Djokovic after a one-year hiatus due to visa restrictions against foreign-born visitors without a COVID vaccination. Some might wonder whether that gap will have an impact on Djokovic’s chances this year. But Djokovic has had an even rockier history at the US Open than this considering the now infamous match default that ended his 2020 US Open bid. Despite the drama and disappointment that followed that event, Djokovic was back in the finals the following year. So don’t expect a one-year break to phase the three-time champion, especially when a 24th Grand Slam title record is at stake.

Barring another fluke, it is going to take the field to stop Djokovic from his second Major title of the season. The only player to defeat Djokovic at a Grand Slam this year is Carlos Alcaraz – at Wimbledon, no less. And when we look at the current ratings standings (Figure 1, top right) it is Alcaraz who remains Djokovic’s toughest competitor. A gap of 150 points separates Djokovic and Alcaraz in the current ratings standings, which means a 30% win chance for Alcaraz if the two were to meet in the final. Not massive odds but still the best of any of the seeds are able to offer against the towering threat that is Novak Djokovic.

Figure 1. Current ratings (top right), serve ratings (bottom left) and return ratings (bottom right) of the US Open men’s seeds. Colors indicate each player’s quarter of the draw.

There are only 8 players, including Djokovic and Alcaraz, who have a rating of 2200 or higher heading into Flushing Meadows. Interestingly, not all of them are the top 8 seeds, including Alexander Zverev and Alex De Minaur. Our ratings are more optimistic about Jannik Sinner’s chances of a big result than his seed, where we have him as the 3rd most highly rated player overall. On the other hand, our ratings are quite down on Holger Rune. Despite being the 4th seed, Rune is only the 17th most highly rated player among the seeds. With disagreements between seeds and ratings like these, we can anticipate more than a few ostensible upsets over the next two weeks.

What about the quarters? Are there any that stand out as a quarter of pain?

Considering the 12 most highly rated seeds, a perfectly balanced draw would have 3 of each per quarter. But the actual 2023 men’s draw has 4 of the strongest players in Quarters 1 and 2, 3 in Quarter 4, and just 1 of the 12 highest rated in Quarter 3. With Alcaraz in Quarter 1 and Djokovic in Quarter 4, this breakdown suggests the luck of the draw is more on Djokovic’s side. But the real quarter winner is Tommy Paul, who is the 11th most highly rated seed but still has the best rating of Quarter 3!

Looking at the serve and return ratings breakdowns (Figure 1, bottom row), it is fascinating to see that the return ratings show a more consistent relationship with overall ratings – the one rating that drives match win expectations. This not only tells us that return skill may prove to be what most separates winners from losers at the US Open; it also could make the contest between Djokovic and Alcaraz more even than their overall rating implies.

In terms of return ratings, Jannik Sinner and Grigor Dimitrov are the other two standouts among the 10 most highly rated seeds as the 3rd and 5th most highly rated on return. Sinner, Dimitrov and Alcaraz have all ended up in Quarter 1, making it the most probable blockbuster quarter of the draw.

Luck appears to be on Djokovic’s side to avenge his final’s loss at Wimbledon. While for Alcaraz, avoiding a repeat of the Cincinnati final could mean he will have little room to fall off the top of his game in the second week in New York. Fans eager to add another match to the Djokovic-Alcaraz rivalry should hope that Quarter 1 is less formidable than it looks and that the hard courts in Queens favor the return game.