Quantifying Dominance: Breaking Down Carlos Alcaraz’s Return Effect
Carlos Alcaraz is on the verge of clinching his second clay court title of the 2023 season, which could set him up for a potential run at the French Open. With uncertainties surrounding the participation of tennis greats Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic at Roland Garros, the young Spanish prodigy is on the brink of cementing his elite status on the greatest stage of clay court tennis. If he capitalizes on this opportunity, it will be in no small part to his effectiveness on the return. Alcaraz’s defensive ability is one of the key strengths of his game and what has helped him achieve multiple title wins after only a few years on the pro tour. As he gears up for this pivotal moment in his young career, we’ll take a closer look at Alcaraz’s return game and explore what makes him such a formidable opponent.
The ‘return effect’ of the title refers to the way Alcaraz defensive skill on the return weakens his opponent’s game. To quantify this, we will look at the way the shot choice of his opponent’s varies against Alcaraz compared to other competitors they have played at the same vents. We will use Match Charting Project (MCP) data to estimate Alcaraz’s return effect. There are 5 opponents that have 3 or more charted matches against Alcaraz, so these will be the opponents we limit the analysis to.
Figure 1 shows the difference in the third shot preference for each opponent against Alcaraz (in blue) and against other top competitors at the same events (in yellow). On 1st serve, Alcaraz only appears to shift Cameron Norrie’s third shot towards the backhand in a significant way. On the 2nd serve, when servers are more vulnerable, we see the full power of Alcaraz’s defensive skill as all opponents – save Rafael Nadal – show a considerable drop in forehand usage against Carlos.
Figure 1. Alcaraz’s defensive impact on third shot forehand patterns of his opponents on all surfaces.
In Figure 2, we see Alcaraz’s impact on forehand usage for all rally shots. This gets at Alcaraz’s overall rally dominance when receiving and not just the neutralizing of the serve in particular. Interestingly, we see Alcaraz sustain his influence on second serve points, showing that he is able to keep opponents outside their comfort zone throughout a rally.
Figure 2. Alcaraz’s defensive impact on the rally forehand patterns on his opponent’s serve on all surfaces.
On the 1st serve, more of a return impact emerges. This is especially the case for Matteo Berrettini who, despite still going to the forehand on more than 80% of third shots against Alcaraz, uses considerably more backhands in rallies against the Spanish phenom. This suggests that Alcaraz is able to turnaround even the most challenging of return situations when staring down the blistering forehand of Berrettini following a first serve.
It is curious that we see the opposite effect against Rafael Nadal, who has used more forehands on the third shot and in rallies when serving against Alcaraz. As a left-hander, it may be that Alcaraz’s standard routines have the opposite impact on Nadal’s shot choice. We have to also consider that the sheer weight of Nadal’s reputation and accomplishments has made it difficult for Alcaraz to play his best and be in as much control against Nadal as he has been with other opponents.
It is unfortunate (at least for fans) that Alcaraz won’t be given the opportunity to put his ability to the test and exert his maximal defensive prowess against Nadal on the grounds where he has been virtually unrivaled for more than a decade. If not this year, we can only hope that the opportunity will come in the next.