Changing Places: 12-Month Adjustments at the Top of the Tennis Ratings
The 2023 tennis season is nearing its conclusion. As in life, a lot can change in sport over the span of one year, especially when it comes to who is at the peak of their game. In this post, we delve into the changes at the pinnacle of men’s and women’s tennis and see who in the past year has hit some hurdles and who is riding a career wave.
Considering the all-surface men’s ratings 12-months ago versus today, there are six players who were among the most formidable in 2022 who were either absent or off their game this season. After a strong end to Pablo Carreno-Busta’s 2022 season, with big results in Montreal and the US Open, PCB had a poor start in 2023 and has been on an indefinite break from tennis since Rotterdam. It is a similar situation for Marin Cilic and Rafael Nadal. Nadal – whose physical struggles are well-known to the tennis community – has been out of competition since the Australian Open and has yet to make an official announcement about the timing of his return, though he has hinted at competing in 2024.
Figure 1. Month-to-month player rating summaries in 2023 for the ATP players among the top 10 rated players at the end of 2022 or 2023.
The last half of 2022 made us believe that Nick Kyrgios may have been ready to turn his career around and take on a renewed commitment to tennis. But his sporadic play in 2023 has dampened those hopes. Matteo Berrettini and Casper Ruud are striking contrasts to Kyrgios, as both players have been some of the most consistent of the high-potential players of their cohort until their recent struggles. If injury-free, they would be two of our top picks for a comeback next year.
Of the players joining the top 10 in 2023, only one has actually been on a downturn recently – this is the case for Stefanos Tsitsipas. Tsitsipas was at such a high-level at the start of the season that, even after a series of worse than expected results, he is still clinging to a top 10 rating.
It is also interesting to see that the four players who maintained a top 10 position – Novak Djokovic, Carlos Alcaraz, Daniil Medvedev, Jannik Sinner – are also among the current most highly rated overall. Each of the players so a rise in their win performance during the US hard court season, which should suggest we may be in store for an especially competitive Australian Open. That’s if it weren’t for the case of the enormous gap Djokovic has continued to create between himself and even Alcaraz, who, even as a strong No. 2, is still 150 rating points behind Novak.
Figure 2. Month-to-month player rating summaries in 2023 for the WTA players among the top 10 rated players at the end of 2022 or 2023.
Similar changes have happened at the top of the women’s games with five positions that have been in flux over the last season (Figure 2). For those leaving the top 10, Ons Jabeur has to be one of the more surprising, given her clear talent and flare. It may be a positive indicator that Jabeur’s ratings trajectory has stagnated rather than been on a downward fall, since this could make it easier for her to find some inroads to regaining an edge over her competitors.
There are five players who are new to the top 10, one of whom is Wimbledon winner and first-time Grand Slam champion Marketa Vondrousova. From Vondrousova’s ratings rise we can see that she backed up her strong results during the grass court season and continued to add to her rating during the hard court swing, which should auger well for the start of her 2024 season. Karolina Muchova and Elena Rybakina have shown a more or less steadily linear rise in their ratings over the year, while Madison Keys and Sorana Cirstea’s current level is the result of a more recent surge in their performance.
You may have noticed that we have four players dropping out while five are joining the top 10. You are correct if you thought those numbers should match. The missing player from those leaving the top 10 is Simona Halep, who has been out of competition for this year amidst an investigation and eventual charges for doping.
Finally, the five women’s players at the top of the rankings include 4 Major winners, three of whom took one Grand Slam title this year – Iga Swiatek, Aryna Sabalenka, and Coco Gauff. Sabalenka and Swiatek have followed the most steady path in their ratings, though Swiatek did see a drop in her form during the grass court season, in particular. Gauff and Pegula, on the other hand, (Gauff especially), hit a stride during the last few months.
With the four competitors still among the top 10 all at a rating between 2300 and 2400, the space at the top of women’s tennis is looking crowded. A very different scenario than the top of the men’s game and one that should make for a highly competitive season ahead for the WTA.