With the French Open quickly approaching, it is time to assess the state of the game at the top of the WTA. Looking at the most highly rated players on clay (Figure 1), we see two players – Iga Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka – who, at this point in the 2023 season, have separated themselves far from the rest of the field. At clay court ratings of 2512 and 2430, respectively, Swiatek and Sabalenka are at least 180 points ahead of the next highest rated player. They have achieved a dominance that parallels but still exceeds Djokovic and Alcaraz on the men’s side.
Figure 1. The Top 32 rated WTA players on clay.
With Swiatek and Sabalenka miles ahead in the current ratings, it would appear that Swiatek and Sabalenka are the inevitable finalists at Roland Garros. While chance could always intervene, defensive skill will be another factor that could raise the odds for the players who have mastered the art of the return on clay.
Are there any top players who fall into that category?
According to first return skill, Irina-Camelia Begu is the strongest threat with one of the highest return ratings on second serve as well (Figure 2). Liudmila Samsonova is right on the heels of Begu but has a much larger gap on second return ability. It is a similar story for Barbora Krejicova and Belinda Bencic. Indeed, the only remaining players that are close to Swiatek and Sabalenka’s return profile – which are both well above average of first and second – are Elisabetta Cocciaretto, Maria Sakkari and Jessica Pegula.
At just 22 years old, Italian Elisabetta Cocciaretto would be the dark horse of the trio to make a big move at the French Open. Cocciaretto’s doesn’t have the overall rating to make this a likely possibility but if return performance does become the key factor for RG it could be a huge opportunity for Cocciaretto to out perform her rating.
On the other hand, Sakkari and Pegula have the experience to make the most out of a defensive advantage on second return ability over Swiatek and Sabalenka. This is especially the case for Pegula who has the 3rd highest clay rating on second return.
Figure 2. Clay court serve and return skill breakdowns for Top 32 prospects for the French Open
With her recent surge in performance in Rome, it may come as a surprise that Elena Rybakina isn’t more highly rated than 7th overall. We have to take into account that Rome came on the back of a first round loss in Madrid and losses as puzzling as that can severely hurt the progress of a player’s rating, especially for a player who isn’t known for their performance on clay. Any momentum advantage aside, we are more bearish on Rybakina’s chances in Paris than her results at Rome may suggest we should be.
The current clay court women’s ratings suggest a straightforward path to the final for Swiatek and Sabalenka. This would be in keeping with what we’ve already seen this season at Stuttgart and Madrid, with the two splitting the titles there. If things were to go the most probable of ways, we can look forward to a spicy final. Still, the fact that Swiatek and Sabalenka don’t dominate the return could also foretell some surprises – or at least some closer contests – before the next women’s champion at Roland Garros is decided.
Methodological Notes
The clay court ratings in this post are the You Cannot Be Serious Stats surface-specific player rating that is up-to-date through the last week of competition. We take the latest rating based on each player’s last match for all players who have competed in the last two months at an level above Futures. We then rank players and report on the 32 highest rated.
Skill ratings use a similar Elo-based methodology but based on serve points won for matches where those match stats are available, which generally includes Premier level and higher for the WTA.
Wow Rybakina's return rating..