Clay Court Kings: Previewing the Top Men’s Prospects for the 2023 French Open
With the top competition heading into the final week of play in Rome – the last big event before Roland Garros – thoughts are already turning to the red dirt in Paris. One major story for the next Grand Slam is becoming increasingly inevitable – the absence of Rafael Nadal. It will be ‘big shoes, big shoes’ to fill for any of the competitors who will try to capitalize on Nadal’s probable withdrawal from this year’s French Open. In this post, we will dive into the current overall and skill-specific clay ratings of the ATP players who are in the best position to take the next Grand Slam title of 2023.
Based on current clay court ratings, Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz have a strong advantage over the field with ratings of 2489 and 2479 respectively (Figure 1). The next highest-rated players on clay are Jannik Sinner and Stefanos Tsitsipas who sit more than 100 points behind Djokovic and Alcaraz. A gap like that will give Djokovic and Alcaraz a significant advantage in the odds over any other opponent up until the final. The small number of points between the top two also sets up what could be one of the most dog-eat-dog Roland Garros finals we have had in years.
But it only takes one match to disrupt all expectations for a draw. With 23 of the top 32 rated players entering the French Open with a rating over 2100, there is ample opportunity for a shake up. Included among the players who have the best chance at putting a spanner into the works of the draw is up-and-comer Holger Rune, who will be hungry to solidify his status with a big result, as well as stalwart Andy Murray, who will want to prove that his efforts to come back from injury have been the right choice. It is a motley mix of top competitors that could create a number of fascinating storylines in the coming weeks.
Figure 1. The Top 32 rated ATP players on clay.
With clay’s ability to diminish the advantage of the serve, the skill breakdowns of the top competitors can be particularly illuminating as to whose skills will be most favored and most challenged at Roland Garros. On the left panel in Figure 2, we have sorted the serve ratings on clay, ordering from top to last in first serve skill. It is notable that neither Carlos Alcaraz or Novak Djokovic are at the top of the list, confirming that the serve isn’t likely to be decisive for the title outcome. This could make it especially hard work for players like Felix Auger Aliassime and Andrey Rublev whose first serve is their weapon.
Figure 2. Clay court serve and return skill breakdowns for Top 32 prospects for the French Open
The return game (and defensive ability in general) is where the French Open is going to be won. And this is where Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic excel (right panel in Figure 2). But it is also where Alcaraz has a more than trivial edge over Djokovic on both the first and second return win performance. Those stats combined with the greater momentum and match experience he will have going into the event could make him an even stronger favorite than his overall rating implies.
Within the return skill numbers are several other fascinating findings. For example we see that Lorenzo Musetti is the most closely matched to phenom Carlos Alcaraz’s return performance. As the bottom of the pack in serve skill that may not be enough to make Musetti a real threat unless luck favors him with a draw of weaker receivers.
Jannik Sinner’s return skill numbers also jump out. Sinner has one of the strongest defenses against the first serve on clay and is only second to Musetti on second return skill. The defense-friendly Roland Garros could be Sinner’s moment to slay a giant. And with Sinner the third most highly rated player on clay, he is our number one pick for a first-time slam champion.